Published December 14th, 2011 at CSNBayArea.com
Giants fans entered November with visions of household names like Beltran, Reyes, or at least Rollins, but once again found themselves hitting the Internet to learn about their new guys. Melky Cabrera? Angel Pagan? Really? This is the best they could do?
You know it’s been a slow offseason when there’s a spirited Twitter debate about which backup middle infielder to keep.
My belief is that the Giants have chosen the right path here. They’re committed to pitching, which we saw carry them to the championship in 2010. That means they need to have the money to keep Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain happy long term, and it means they can’t commit to big contracts for hitters.
It also means more tight games, more strategy, and more interesting baseball than most teams will play, but I’m in favor of that style. I’m very pleased that they’ve going to start with Brandon Crawford at shortstop. It seems like he turns a hit into an out every other game, which more than makes up for his weaknesses at the plate. When Orlando Cabrera was playing short down the stretch last year, you could see how much Giants pitchers had come to count on Crawford to make the tough play, or the tough double play.
I’d like to propose another way to look at this for Giants fans who cry themselves to sleep thinking about the ones who got away. Obviously, winning the World Series in 2010 was pretty cool. I think the fact the Giants came out of nowhere made it even sweeter! Do we really want to become like Yankees or Red Sox fans, where every season has a “World Champs or Bust” sign on it?
Here’s an interesting fact about salaries in baseball. Everyone knows that the Yankees have the biggest payroll. Since free agency started, they’ve always been one of the top one or two teams.
Did you know that starting in 2002, the margin between the Yanks and whoever was No. 2 started to grow? In 2001, they were basically tied with Boston. In 2002, they were $17M higher than the Red Sox. In 2003, they were $35M higher than the Mets. In 2004, they were $57M higher than Boston, and ever since then they’ve been between $30M and $80M higher than whoever was in second place.
OK, that’s not that interesting; it’s just a bunch of numbers, so let’s look on the field. In the six years between 1996 and 2001, when the Yankees were bunched with the highest-paying teams at the top of the payroll chart, they were in the World Series five times, winning four titles. Since 2002, when they began to pull away from the pack and entered their own stratosphere, they have been in “just” two World Series, winning one.
I’m not trying to make a point that you don’t need to spend money to get to the World Series. I am saying that (and Cubs and Mets fans would back me up on this) spending the money is no guarantee that you’ll even make the playoffs, much less the big show.
Here’s a breakdown of the past 10 World Series participants and their Opening Day payroll rank:
2011: Cardinals (11), Rangers (13)
2010: Giants (10), Rangers (27)
2009: Yankees (1), Phillies (7)
2008: Phillies (12), Rays (29)
2007: Red Sox (2), Rockies (25)
2006: Cardinals (11), Tigers (14)
2005: White Sox (13), Astros (12)
2004: Red Sox (2), Cardinals (12)
2003: Marlins (23), Yankees (1)
2002: Angels (15), Giants (10)
How does that break down?
Positions 1-5: 4 appearances, 3 wins
Positions 6-10: 3 appearances, 1 wins
Positions 11-15: 9 appearances, 5 wins
Positions 16-20: 0 appearances
Positions 21-25: 2 appearances, 1 win
Positions 26-30: 2 appearances, 0 wins
Over the past decade, the Giants have consistently been in the second or third group, which gives them a great chance to play in October every year. They need to be creative, clever, and a little lucky to win.
That worked in 2010, and I’m a little surprised that so many fans seem to have forgotten all about that. I think two months before pitchers and catchers report is a little early to hit the panic button.