Published Dec. 30th at CSNBayArea.com
You can’t turn on a radio this week or pick up a paper without hearing about the poor Oakland Raiders and all of the bad luck they’ve suffered this year.
I’ll start by acknowledging that having the owner/general manager/face of the franchise/final decision-maker on everything pass away suddenly during the season does add an element of chaos to a situation. It’s only fair to point out, however, that every Raider season seems to be chaotic, and that Al Davis was not only comfortable in that element, but often was the cause of the turmoil.
Still, a structural change like that is difficult for an organization to handle mid-year, and that is probably the most inarguable example of bad fortune that has befallen the Silver and Black this season.
As I look back on the Raiders’ season, however, I find that there are actually more examples of the football gods smiling on them than times when they did not. First, let’s look at the misfortune, although these facts are on the tip of the tongue of most Raider fans, so we don’t need a lot of detail.
– Because of the McFadden injury, the Jason Campbell injury was made worse, because a healthy McFadden could have really helped the passing game in Campbell’s absence.
– At the risk of sounding like a Christmas song, All of The Other Injuries made the Raiders’ season an uphill climb. You all know the list of guys who’ve missed games. Obviously, injuries are part of the NFL landscape, but very few teams this season have had the number of injuries the Raiders have suffered and lost the same kind of key performers for long stretches.
What I think is overlooked when this season is evaluated, however, is the fact that the Raiders have had some things go in their favor this year, and you could make the argument that they really should have already clinched a playoff spot, rather than need a win and some help to get to the postseason. The biggest lucky break they had was a 3-week run of good fortune in the middle of the season:
– Oakland went to Minnesota to take on the 2-7 Vikings. Minnesota scored first on a 12-yard run by Adrian Peterson. Fortunately for the Raiders, Peterson left the game with an ankle injury at the end of the first quarter. The Raiders led 27-7 in the 4th quarter when the Vikings scored on a drive that featured three defensive penalties. Later, the Raiders fumbled deep in their own territory, and the Vikings pulled to within six. They had the ball near midfield with 2 minutes to go when rookie QB Christian Ponder turned it over on downs. Final: Raiders 27-21.
– The Raiders’ next game was at home against the 7-3 Bears. Fortunately for the Raiders, Bears’ QB Jay Cutler broke his hand the previous week, so backup Caleb Hanie was making his first NFL start. He played like it, too, throwing three interceptions, including one near the goal line at the end of the first half. The Bears still had the ball near midfield with a chance to win when time ran out. Final: Raiders 25-20.
Three straight wins, right? That’s pretty cool in today’s NFL. But a closer look reveals three close victories against teams that had similar injury problems as the Raiders. Perhaps we shouldn’t have been so surprised when the team went down to Miami and laid the biggest egg of the season.
Another thing they had going for them was a soft schedule. This needs a qualifier, because any schedule that has the Patriots and Packers on it can’t be too soft. The 2011 NFL, however, is filled with teams just like the Raiders: good one week, bad the next. Even the two best “quality wins” are suspect: The Jets turned out to be one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL, and the Texans are stumbling to the finish after clinching the worst division in the league.
None of this matters if they make the playoffs, of course. You can ask the Seattle Seahawks what the regular season means once January comes. But if they don’t, please don’t try to make the case that Oakland missed the postseason because they were unlucky. That dog won’t hunt.