Lincecum’s Season is Even Worse Than it Looks.

Tim Lincecum pitched so poorly over the first three months of the season that he lowered the bar of expectations practically down to the ground. The Giants won only two of his first 14 starts. When he was able to put together back-to-back quality starts in June, observers started to breathe easier, believing that the turnaround had begun.

Only it hadn’t. And hasn’t still. And I’m saying, it’s not out there.

What has become abundantly clear is that Lincecum is totally over-matched by the better teams on the Giants’ schedule. If anyone was surprised that the Nationals knocked him around Wednesday afternoon, well, they haven’t been paying attention.

Here is a list of the teams Lincecum has earned wins against this season:

  • Mets (2)
  • Dodgers (pre-Ramirez, no Kemp)
  • Astros
  • Padres
  • Phillies
  • Rockies

The only team on that list over .500 is LA, and Lincecum got them in the middle of a 7-game losing stretch during which they scored 5 runs and were shut out five times.

Here’s a list of the teams against which Lincecum gave his team a chance to win, although he did not get a W:

  • A’s (when they were four games under .500)
  • Astros

Lastly, there were two games where Timmy could honestly be called a “hard-luck loser,” when he pitched well but the team lost. Here’s that list:

  • Rockies
  • Diamondbacks

That’s it, folks. 11 decent starts out of 25, and only one of them against a team that you could expect to see in the playoffs. By the way, only four of Lincecum’s losses have come at the hands of what you would call the game’s elite teams, so the rest of his losses have come to some bad teams.

Wondering how Timmy has fared against baseball’s best (Nationals, Pirates, Rangers)? 0-4 with 21ER in 16.1 IP, ERA of 11.57.

So here’s the good news. If Bruce Bochy plays it straight the rest of the way, and nobody gets skipped, Lincecum has eight starts left. Five are against teams he has a chance to beat (Cubs, D-Backs (2), Rockies, Padres). The other three are against the Dodgers twice and the Braves.

What’s my point? Let’s quit waiting for Lincecum to go back to his 2008-10 levels. Maybe he’ll find that gear in the off-season. Let’s just hope he gives the team a chance against the lesser teams on the schedule, and expect him to get pounded by the good ones.

And be grateful that there aren’t more good ones!

Why Do The Giants Get to Keep Those Wins?

There are plenty of questions in the wake of Wednesday’s announcement that Melky Cabrera would be suspended for 50 games for testing positive for testosterone. For the Giants and their fans, the questions are of the “how could this happen?” and “what do we do now?” variety.

In Phoenix, or Los Angeles, the question being asked tonight is, “Why do they get to keep those wins?”

I understand that the answer is obvious, that there is no provision in the PED rules that would require a team to forfeit games played by a person who tests positive, but shouldn’t there be? Is it fair to the Dodgers and Diamondbacks that the Giants got 117 games of an enhanced player?

And if you’re loading up the “testosterone didn’t really help Melky” defense, don’t waste my time. If Melky thought he was capable of the season he’s having this year, and the one he had last year, without PED’s, he wouldn’t have used them. I trust his judgment on the matter, and think it’s ridiculous to try to make the case that his drug use didn’t have an impact on his play.

Cabrera was 18-for-39 this season against Arizona, with 2 homers, 6 RBI and 8 runs scored. The Giants have won four games against the D-Backs, and in those games he was 11-for-17 and scored four runs. If Arizona had won two of those games, they’d trail the Giants by 1.5 games rather than 5.5.  In the four games the Giants have won over the Dodgers, Cabrera was 5-for-15 with 3 runs scored.

According to CSN Bay Area’s Andy Baggerly, the failed test is said to have happened around the All-Star Break. That means Cabrera has played more than a month’s worth of games while he was appealing his suspension. Is that fair? Baseball has a pretty good idea that a player has an illegal edge over his opponents, and yet he gets to keep playing while they make sure?

There’s a strong current of opinion that Cabrera’s suspension is proof that baseball finally has a PED policy that works, and to a degree that’s true. A player who was trying to game the system was caught, and now he pays a penalty. In Cabrera’s case, the penalty is actually bigger than usual, because of his status as a free agent next season. It’s impossible to calculate how much money this escapade has cost him.

But while the policy punishes the guilty player, there’s no sanction against the team which benefited, either knowingly or not, from his presence in the lineup.

Cabrera Has Played His Last Game as a Giant

I’m not a “Giants’ Insider,” but I feel pretty strongly that Melky Cabrera’s suspension means we’ve seen the last of him in a Giants’ uniform. When the announcement was first made, it seemed that Giants fans rushed to their schedules to see how many games the team has left.

It doesn’t matter, folks. Cabrera is done.

Two things can happen the rest of the season. One is that the Giants pull together, hold off LA and Arizona for the Western Division title, and go deep into the playoffs. In which case, they don’t need Melky Cabrera anymore.

The other thing that could happen is that they miss the playoffs this season. While one of the things that makes baseball great is that one player is rarely the difference between a team achieving the post-season or not, if the Giants fail this season, the blame will like squarely at the feet of Melky Cabrera. Gone will be thoughts of the 117 games he played for San Francisco this season, or the 61 wins. This season will be all about the PED’s, and Cabrera’s willingness (or perhaps eagerness) to roll the dice and see how far he could get.

If that scenario comes true, I don’t see the Giants bringing Cabrera back next year. Even though his salary demands will be extremely low, there would be too much emotional baggage to have him around.

No, it’s “circle the wagons” time at AT&T Park, and Cabrera is definitely outside the circle. He’s on his own, to try to get someone to give him a contract next year. That team will not be the San Francisco Giants.

OTHER NOTES ON CABRERA:

1)      If Cabrera had accepted his suspension when he was told about the test, which, according to CSN Bay Area’s Andy Baggerly was near the All-Star break, The Giants would have had three weeks to work a trade to replace his bat. There has been some speculation that the Hunter Pence signing was a more urgent matter because the Giants had gotten wind of Cabrera’s possible suspension. That can’t be true. The Giants have needed another bat for two years now, and Pence was supposed to replace Blanco in the lineup, not Cabrera.

2)      Another benefit to Cabrera not appealing the suspension would have been that he would have come back with almost a month to play, which might have been a more appealing option to the Giants than activating him during the playoffs.

3)       For anyone who looks at sportswriters and thinks “wow, those guys get paid to go to games!,” consider Baggerly’s role in this saga. On June 27th, Baggerly had been hearing on various social networking sites that Cabrera had failed a drug test and was looking at a suspension. Before writing anything about the rumors, Baggerly went to Cabrera, telling him what he was hearing and asking for a comment. Cabrera got upset, proclaiming his innocence and indicating that he didn’t know anything about anything. Baggerly felt that by even talking Cabrera about the story he had linked the player to PED’s, and he apologized in his column for mentioning it to Cabrera. Three weeks later, it turns out that the rumors were really leaks, not rumors, and Baggerly had the story right all along. Trouble is, he never ran with it. Talk about a no-win situation!