Why Alex Smith Will be Back with the 49ers Next Season

March 19, 2012

So it’s decided. Peyton Manning’s going to Denver after all. For 49ers’ fans, who were casual observers of the Manning Saga until they were suddenly thrust into the middle of it Friday morning, there’s a feeling of loss today.

On the surface, nothing has changed. The team didn’t have a starting QB under contract before Friday, and they don’t today. Alex Smith was available Friday, and he still has not signed a contract.

Below the surface, however, it seems like everything is different. The 2011 49ers were a team built on chemistry and belief in each other, and it all started with Jim Harbaugh’s announcement that he would be just fine with Alex Smith as his quarterback. We all know how it turned out.

Now, we don’t know what to think. Is Harbaugh’s faith in Alex shaken? Does this mean they can’t work together anymore? What about Smith’s teammates, who took their cues about Alex from their coach? Does the team’s pursuit of Peyton Manning mean that they shouldn’t believe in #11?

No, no, and a resounding no.

Hey, I understand that part of the fun part of being a sports fan is putting yourself in the position of the people we watch and trying to imagine how they feel as events unfold. The problem is, unless you’ve actually been there, you have no idea what’s going on and how anybody feels. So before you make an analogy involving the 49ers’ pursuit of Manning and marital infidelity (an analogy I’ve heard on sports radio several times over the past few days), get a hold of yourself.

You heard it here first. Smith will be the quarterback for the 49ers this year. Not out of loyalty or some other emotional motivation; It’s simply the best fit for him. He’s played in a lot of systems for a lot of coordinators over the years, and for him to get his panties in a bunch and leave the team over their interest in a future Hall-of-Famer would be all kinds of stupid. I know there are still plenty of people who don’t believe Smith can take this team to the Super Bowl, but I never heard any of them say that the reason was that he was stupid.

From the 49ers standpoint, it makes just as much sense. Kaepernick is not ready, and nobody else is available to them who projects to win more games than Smith, now that Manning is on his way to Denver.

The irony is that Smith’s detractors will have to do two things: 1) Be impressed that the 49ers tried to upgrade the position, and 2) welcome Smith back as the best option for the team for next season. It actually removes some of the pressure on him to make up for what many people feel was a sub-par performance in the NFC Championship game last year.

Smith was wise to go to Miami and take the temperature down there. Had Manning signed with the 49ers, the Dolphins were really going to be his only option if he wanted to remain a starter.His visit there does not mean that his feelings were hurt to the point that he wouldn’t come back to the ‘Niners, it just meant that he was doing his due diligence, which, again, is a sign of his intelligence.

The 49ers kicked the tires on Peyton Manning. I think they would have gotten him if they weren’t up against  a desperate man, but John Elway was not going to lose out on his only chance to get out from under Tim Tebow. If you can blame the 49ers for anything, it was not seeing that coming. They could have saved themselves some time and trouble, but it will not cost them Alex Smith.

 

Thoughts on the 49ers-Steelers Game Monday Night

Published December 21st, 2011 at CSNBayArea.com

Before I get into my thoughts about Monday Night’s 49er victory, there’s something I need to get off my chest. I don’t want to hear anyone blaming fans for selling their tickets to “the enemy.” This is America.  When you own something, you have the right to do whatever you want with it.  A fan buying a season ticket has one obligation: make sure the check clears. After that, he can go to the games, sell the tickets, set them on fire, etc.

It’s the team’s job, in my opinion, to create a product and an atmosphere so compelling that anyone holding a ticket would feel like they were missing something if they didn’t go. I don’t remember a lot of talk about 49er fans selling their tickets in the 1980s and ’90s, do you?

On to the game. It’s easy to get swept up in the excitement surrounding the 49ers’ thrashing of the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday night, but there is one big reason to resist. I’ll get to that, but first allow me to highlight the things that went exactly as fans hoped:

The offense scored two red-zone TDs
This has been the single biggest concern this season, and during the first half it was still looming. First-and-goal at the 2-yard line? Sorry, guys, that has to be a TD.  When the 49ers challenged a call that ruled Vernon Davis out at the 1-yard-line in the second half, announcers on both TV and radio simultaneously claimed that the challenge was due to the team’s struggles scoring from in close (How do I know? I watch the game with the sound up and listen to the radio in one ear. Pretty normal, huh?). The fact that they got two red-zone TDs, with relative ease, was a great relief to everyone in the stadium not dressed in black and yellow (More on that later).

Special Teams continue to be, well, special
Andy Lee had one of his best games ever, and for a guy who’s been as good for as long as he has, that’s significant. The highlight was when he (with the aid of a Pittsburgh penalty) completely “flipped the field.” The 49ers were on their own 12-yard line when Lee, punting from near the goal line, sent a soaring punt all the way to the Steelers’ 26. The ball was returned, as long kicks like that often are, but there was a holding penalty on the kick that was marked off 10 yards from the spot of the catch. By the time the Steelers lined up on their 16-yard-line, the net on the play was 72 yards!

Overall, the kick coverage units continued to excel for San Francisco.
The Steelers didn’t start one drive outside their own 30-yard line. This has been a constant for the 49ers this season, and is an overlooked part of how successful their defense has been.

Aldon Smith looks like the steal of the draft
This guy is incredible. Justin Smith told postgame interviewers “He just has the ability to get skinny and slip through there.” The rookie will continue to draw more and more resources from opposing offenses, and open up more opportunities for the rest of the line to pressure the QB. He broke the team’s rookie record for sacks, and he had another one nullified because of an illegal contact in the secondary. His rush was so impressive that, rather than show the penalty, the TV producers showed two replays of him sacking Ben Roethlisberger even though it didn’t count.

This 49er coaching staff will not be outcoached by anyone
People are heaping credit upon Jim Harbaugh for the team’s turnaround, and he deserves every bit of it. He’s going to be a runaway winner of the NLF Coach of the Year award, even if the San Francisco loses its last two games. What has gone unnoticed, especially on the national level, is that the most important thing he did was assemble an incredible coaching staff. In Vic Fangio, Greg Roman and Brad Seely, he has three coordinators who are all at the top of their game. The position coaches are all great teachers, and player after player has said that the biggest difference between this year and last has been the clarity of the lessons to be learned. The prior staff would talk about what they wanted done, this staff tells the players how to do it.

Now, here’s the stuff 49er fans don’t want to hear:

The 49ers did not beat an elite QB Monday night
First, spare me all the stuff about how everyone has injuries, they don’t matter, the result is everything. That’s all true except when you’re trying to get a handle on how good a team really is. The sad truth is that Roethlisberger, for all of his courage and toughness, was a shell of his usual self on Monday, and still he threw for over 300 yards. More importantly, he converted eight out of 14 first downs. His inability to move around and keep the play alive, probably his biggest asset, was what led to his interceptions and his sacks.  I’m giving the 49ers credit for playing well.  I’m not prepared to say that if these teams met with a healthy No. 7, the result would not have been dramatically different.

OK, I hear you, you’re talking about the 49ers being without Patrick Willis. Well, the Steelers didn’t have James Harrison, and if you don’t think that was a factor in Alex Smith keeping his uniform clean, you’re not paying attention.

I’m not saying that it doesn’t matter that the 49ers won the game. If they had lost to a Steelers team with a banged up Big Ben and no Harrison, it would have been a really bad sign. I’m just saying we need to keep the win in perspective. They should win their next two games, and their biggest test will be New Orleans in Round 2. If they win that one, I’m convinced.

49ers Still an Unknown Quantity

Published December 2nd 2011 at CSNBayArea.com

Why is it that we always have to know how things are going to end up? Ever since the 49ersstarted to string a few games together, there’s been a rush among media and fans to figure out exactly how good they are and exactly how far they’ll go in the playoffs.

I blame the microwave oven. In the days before you could cook a turkey in 12 minutes, I think we all had a little more patience.

The interesting thing about how this season has unfolded is that instead of each game providing more clarity on the question, the opposite has been true.

Let’s review:

Week 1: Beat the Seahawks. A minor upset, but with the lockout nobody knew what to expect, and Ted Ginn Jr. had those two return TDs, which was a fluke. No answers.

Week 2: Lost to the Cowboys in OT. This was actually a major accomplishment for the 49ers, but everyone was so focused on Harbaugh’s decision to leave 3 points on the board that the fact they’d nearly beat a pretty good team was lost. Good sign, but still a loss, and no answers.

Week 3: Beat the Bengals. Significant because the team had struggled so mightily in games in the Eastern time zone, but Cincinnati had a rookie QB and the game was Capital U-Ugly, so no answers.

Week 4: Big comeback to beat the Eagles. Ironically, this looked like a bigger win at the time than it does now.  Since this game, the 49ers are 6-1, and the Eagles are 3-4, so in the rearview mirror it looks like it was a game S.F. should have won. Sure didn’t feel like it at the time, but now we have to say: No answers.

Week 5:  Crushed Tampa Bay. Alas, because Tampa Bay is not going to be anywhere near the playoffs, this is another feels-good-but-no-answer game.

Week 6: Beat the previously undefeated Lions. Huge win at the time. Big fourth-down play from Alex Smith to win the game. Even though the Lions have faded somewhat since then (and played a very soft early schedule), this game does stand out as one that gave a hint that this 49er team could be pretty special. Call it Answer
No. 1. Can they win a game on the road against a good team? Yes.

Week 7: Bye week. Still could have provided some answers, but didn’t. Of the 49ers’ previous opponents, the Seahawks, Lions and Bucs all lost, and the Cowboys stomped a very feeble Rams team. No answers.

Week 8: Beat the Browns. Lackluster effort, trouble converting red zone opportunities, could have won by 30, but, on the other hand, there was never a minute in the game when it looked like they could lose. No answers.

Week 9: Beat the Redskins. Carbon copy of the Browns game, except it was on the road, and the fact they put together two games like that in a row made it start to look like Answer No. 2: Can they beat poor teams fairly easily, which is the first thing that separates playoff teams from non-playoff teams? Yes.

Week 10: Beat the Giants. This win, like the one against the Eagles, is not standing the test of time. The Giants were 6-2 coming in to Candlestick, but they’re 6-5 now. While they’re only one game back in the NFC East, they looked so pathetic against New Orleans Monday night that it’s hard to imagine them doing any damage even if they make the playoffs. No answer.

Week 11: Beat Arizona. Like the games against Cleveland and Washington, this game held positive and negative messages for 49er fans. On the plus side, they were never in danger of losing the game. On the negative side, they probably should have scored 50 points, and it was a dizzying array of mistakes that kept them from doing so. For the first time all season, special teams didn’t look special. No answer.

Week 12: Lost to Baltimore: For a lot of fans, it seems that this loss was a sign that the 49ers are not as good as they looked in the first 10 games. I completely disagree. I think, while they obviously would have preferred a win, there was a very positive outcome in this game. People like to talk about how there are no excuses in football, but this was the first time a team flew across three time zones to play on three days rest. I don’t see how, when evaluating what a game result means in the context of the season, you can fail to factor in a team having basically one practice day to prepare for an opponent as good as the Ravens. They had a TD called back on a penalty and the Ravens got a pass interference call that led to their TD. So Answer No. 3: Can they compete with a perennial playoff team on the road, even on a short week? Yes.

Twelve weeks, and only three answers. There are five games to go, and four of the games are ones that they should win. The only remaining opportunity to really make a statement is against Pittsburgh, and even if they lose that game they should finish second in the NFC and have a first-round bye in the playoffs.

So, like that slow-roasting turkey of yesteryear, we have to wait until the remaining five games of the season are played to really have an idea of what this team has accomplished. After waiting almost 10 years for the 49ers to get back to the playoffs, it doesn’t seem like that much to ask.

49ers Face Toughest Test

Published November 11, 2011 at CSNBayArea.com

First of all, I want to acknowledge what many 49er fans are feeling this week, which is that old feeling of anticipation about a game on Sunday. This season has been a wonderful ride, but because of the nature of today’s NFL, there haven’t been many Sundays when you had that feeling in your stomach and couldn’t wait for the game.

There are milestones that teams must pass on their way from where the 49ers have been to where they seem headed, and one of them presents itself this week.
The New York Giants represent a rarity in today’s NFL: An historically good team that’s playing well this season. There are six teams with two or fewer losses, but only three — the Giants, the Packers and the Ravens — have been consistent playoff teams over the past several years. The rest are upstarts — the 49ers, Bengals and Lions.

You can make a case that the 49ers are the best team in that latter group. They beat both of the other teams on the road, and while the margins were slim, both wins were, you guessed it, milestones for an improving team. The Cincinnati win was their first in the Eastern Time Zone in recent memory, and the Lions were 5-0 when the 49ers showed up.

The Giants haven’t been dominating this year; they lost to the Redskins in their opener, and somehow lost to Seattle at home. They barely beat Arizona and Miami after trailing for much of those games. But they have three quality wins, Philadelphia, Buffalo and, last week, New England in Foxboro and a lineup that features a QB and several other key players who won a Super Bowl.

You could probably make a good argument that the 49ers should win this game two weeks ago, but the Giants’ win over the Pats last week makes a huge difference. More important was the way they won, coming back after Tom Brady threw for what seemed to be the winning TD, with Eli Manning moving them right back down the field for the win. They’re a team coming into Candlestick Park with an impressive combination of confidence and talent.

I’m not saying that the 49ers are outclassed in this matchup. I think they can win, and Las Vegas agrees with me. It just seems as if 49er fans have a newfound confidence in their team that has gotten a little out of hand, in my opinion, and I don’t hear the Giants getting the respect they deserve.

The 49ers have made big steps — first, beat somebody, anybody! Then come back from a devastating loss. Next, win a road game in the Eastern Time Zone. Now do that again, but against a better team, and let’s spot them, say, a 20-point lead. The win in Detroit was crucial, too. Alex Smith delivering the pass on fourth down was a personal milestone for him, and provided the team one as well. They had beaten an undefeated team in Week 6, and even if Detroit’s schedule was a little soft to that point (and it was), very few teams make it to 5-0 no matter whom they play.

After a bye week, there was another milestone.  To be considered a very good team, you need to beat lousy teams without drama. The 49ers did that not once, but twice in the past two weeks. Cleveland is terrible in every way, and the Redskins aren’t much better.  The only complaint 49er fans could have in either of those games was that the score didn’t reflect the extent to which they were the better team. They moved up and down the field at will, but stalled in the red zone, and that is evidently going to have to be a future milestone because they’re not ready for it yet.

Red zone frustrations aside, neither Cleveland nor Washington were ever a threat to beat the 49ers, and that is a remarkable thing to say about the season this football team is having. San Francisco has practically locked up a playoff berth, so what remains in the regular season is to beat one of the following teams: Giants, Steelers, Ravens. If the 49ers can do that, and win even four of their remaining five division games, they’ll have carved out a 12-win season for themselves, possibly a first-round bye, and the confidence of knowing that they can play with the best teams in the NFL.

And that, 49er fans, is why you’ve had that feeling in your stomach all week. Might as well get used to it, your team is going to play some very big games this year.

Harbaugh-Smith Relationship has Precedents

Published October 6, 2011 at CSNBayArea.com

Sports fans in the Bay Area have been fascinated by the Jim Harbaugh-Alex Smith relationship since the day the new 49ers coach was hired.

One of his first actions was to announce that Smith would return as QB, much to the disappointment of The Faithful.

After watching Smith struggle for six years, fans were  convinced that he just couldn’t play in the NFL, and the talk shows were full of anger and frustration at the thought of watching No. 11 fling the ball all over Candlestick Park for another season. People just couldn’t imagine that the new coach, a former QB himself, couldn’t see the disaster right around the corner!

Now, with the 49ers at 3-1, with Smith’s performances ranging from “not horrible” to “pretty damn good,” 49er fans are starting to come around to the notion that Harbaugh may have known what he was doing.

You don’t have to look very far to see examples of QB-coach relationships in similar circumstances that worked out pretty well. One took place in Oakland, where Jim Plunkett, who had suffered through 10 nondescript seasons, hooked up with Tom Flores, a former QB himself, and the two combined for two Super Bowl championships.

Had there been a sports talk radio community in those days, it would have been very interesting how the Plunkett signing would have played on the air.

I had the opportunity to talk to a QB who had an experience like this. Sonny Jurgensen is a Hall of Famer, but looking at his career stats you have to feel for the guy.

He led the Eagles to a 10-4 record in his first year as an NFL starter (he was 27, by the way, that’s how it worked then), then suffered through eight non-winning seasons with Philly and Washington. He had good stats, mostly because his teams were always behind, but had played for a succession of coaches who didn’t “get” the passing game. One of those coaches, ironically, was one of the greatest QBs ever, Otto Graham.

That all changed in 1969. The legendary Vince Lombardi, who had retired from Green Bay after the 1967 season, was ready to go back to coaching. The Redskins hired him, and Jurgensen told me, “People know Lombardi for the Packer Sweep, and the defense, and the toughness, but what I learned was that he really was a master of offensive football. I had open receivers all over the field for the first time in my career. It was like the sun came out.”

Jurgensen led the league in attempts, completions, and passing yards. The Redskins went 7-5-2, their first winning season since 1955. Unfortunately, Lombardi was stricken with cancer, and died before the ‘Skins could build on his success. After one year with an interim coach, George Allen was hired and his defensive mindset propelled the Redskins to Super Bowl VII, but Jurgensen’s days of leading the NFL in passing were over.

Steve Young is another player who spent a couple of years in the USFL, played in the NFL for a terrible team, then came to the 49ers, where the QB position was the center of the universe.

He made a very interesting comment about Harbaugh and Smith on KNBR the week before the season’s first game. He was asked point-blank whether he could see Alex Smith hoisting the Super Bowl trophy, in a 49ers uniform. Young paused for about five seconds, and then said “I can.” He went on to explain that as a guy who played several years for coaches who didn’t understand the QB position and didn’t know how to call plays, he knows personally the difference when you get to a situation where the coach and the system are conducive to quarterback play.

Calling plays in the NFL is a lot harder than it looks from your couch, and anyone who has watched the 49ers for any of the past six seasons knows that with very few exceptions that has been a very weak point for this team. Fans have been very critical of the offensive coordinators over the years, but at the same time they have held Smith ultimately responsible for the team’s failure to move the football.

Young’s primary concern for Harbaugh and Smith this season was that because the fans had seen six years of futility from Smith there was no margin for a slow start. He felt that if the Niners got off to an 0-2 start, the crescendo of boos from the stands would be impossible to ignore, and with only a rookie behind Smith, Harbaugh, despite his own job stability, would be off to a very rocky start with the fans.

Fortunately, that isn’t what happened. In fact you could argue that the opposite has taken place, and Smith has shown enough development in the first four games that even if he has a rough game or even two, he and his new coach will have at least a few weeks to try to work out the kinks.

So next time you see Alex Smith trying to explain what’s different about playing for Jim Harbaugh, understand that what he’s trying to say is, “It’s like the sun came out.”