49ers Still an Unknown Quantity

Published December 2nd 2011 at CSNBayArea.com

Why is it that we always have to know how things are going to end up? Ever since the 49ersstarted to string a few games together, there’s been a rush among media and fans to figure out exactly how good they are and exactly how far they’ll go in the playoffs.

I blame the microwave oven. In the days before you could cook a turkey in 12 minutes, I think we all had a little more patience.

The interesting thing about how this season has unfolded is that instead of each game providing more clarity on the question, the opposite has been true.

Let’s review:

Week 1: Beat the Seahawks. A minor upset, but with the lockout nobody knew what to expect, and Ted Ginn Jr. had those two return TDs, which was a fluke. No answers.

Week 2: Lost to the Cowboys in OT. This was actually a major accomplishment for the 49ers, but everyone was so focused on Harbaugh’s decision to leave 3 points on the board that the fact they’d nearly beat a pretty good team was lost. Good sign, but still a loss, and no answers.

Week 3: Beat the Bengals. Significant because the team had struggled so mightily in games in the Eastern time zone, but Cincinnati had a rookie QB and the game was Capital U-Ugly, so no answers.

Week 4: Big comeback to beat the Eagles. Ironically, this looked like a bigger win at the time than it does now.  Since this game, the 49ers are 6-1, and the Eagles are 3-4, so in the rearview mirror it looks like it was a game S.F. should have won. Sure didn’t feel like it at the time, but now we have to say: No answers.

Week 5:  Crushed Tampa Bay. Alas, because Tampa Bay is not going to be anywhere near the playoffs, this is another feels-good-but-no-answer game.

Week 6: Beat the previously undefeated Lions. Huge win at the time. Big fourth-down play from Alex Smith to win the game. Even though the Lions have faded somewhat since then (and played a very soft early schedule), this game does stand out as one that gave a hint that this 49er team could be pretty special. Call it Answer
No. 1. Can they win a game on the road against a good team? Yes.

Week 7: Bye week. Still could have provided some answers, but didn’t. Of the 49ers’ previous opponents, the Seahawks, Lions and Bucs all lost, and the Cowboys stomped a very feeble Rams team. No answers.

Week 8: Beat the Browns. Lackluster effort, trouble converting red zone opportunities, could have won by 30, but, on the other hand, there was never a minute in the game when it looked like they could lose. No answers.

Week 9: Beat the Redskins. Carbon copy of the Browns game, except it was on the road, and the fact they put together two games like that in a row made it start to look like Answer No. 2: Can they beat poor teams fairly easily, which is the first thing that separates playoff teams from non-playoff teams? Yes.

Week 10: Beat the Giants. This win, like the one against the Eagles, is not standing the test of time. The Giants were 6-2 coming in to Candlestick, but they’re 6-5 now. While they’re only one game back in the NFC East, they looked so pathetic against New Orleans Monday night that it’s hard to imagine them doing any damage even if they make the playoffs. No answer.

Week 11: Beat Arizona. Like the games against Cleveland and Washington, this game held positive and negative messages for 49er fans. On the plus side, they were never in danger of losing the game. On the negative side, they probably should have scored 50 points, and it was a dizzying array of mistakes that kept them from doing so. For the first time all season, special teams didn’t look special. No answer.

Week 12: Lost to Baltimore: For a lot of fans, it seems that this loss was a sign that the 49ers are not as good as they looked in the first 10 games. I completely disagree. I think, while they obviously would have preferred a win, there was a very positive outcome in this game. People like to talk about how there are no excuses in football, but this was the first time a team flew across three time zones to play on three days rest. I don’t see how, when evaluating what a game result means in the context of the season, you can fail to factor in a team having basically one practice day to prepare for an opponent as good as the Ravens. They had a TD called back on a penalty and the Ravens got a pass interference call that led to their TD. So Answer No. 3: Can they compete with a perennial playoff team on the road, even on a short week? Yes.

Twelve weeks, and only three answers. There are five games to go, and four of the games are ones that they should win. The only remaining opportunity to really make a statement is against Pittsburgh, and even if they lose that game they should finish second in the NFC and have a first-round bye in the playoffs.

So, like that slow-roasting turkey of yesteryear, we have to wait until the remaining five games of the season are played to really have an idea of what this team has accomplished. After waiting almost 10 years for the 49ers to get back to the playoffs, it doesn’t seem like that much to ask.